Britain's Office for National Statistics (ONS) has mulled introducing confidence intervals for its estimates-but no one knows quite how wide the bands should be.

英国国家统计局（ONS）已经考虑为其经济预测引入可靠区间，但是没人之间区间宽度应该设置为多少。

Techniques such as hypothesis testing and confidence intervals rely on probability theory.

假设检验和置信区间等技术依赖于概率论。

Or a 95% confidence interval for this mean right over here.

或者这个平均值的 95% 置信区间就在这里。

Now, our whole goal is to get a 95% confidence interval for that.

现在，我们的整个目标是为此获得 95% 的置信区间。

I actually remember using Brilliant in university because I kept forgetting how confidence intervals worked.

我实际上记得在大学时使用过 Brilliant，因为我一直忘记置信区间是如何工作的。

What we now need to do is actually tackle the confidence interval.

我们现在需要做的实际上是解决置信区间问题。

Or an interval of-- we have a confidence interval.

或者一个区间——我们有一个置信区间。

But we still have to come up with our confidence interval.

但我们仍然需要得出我们的置信区间。

But we're going to try to come up with a 95% confidence interval for that difference.

但我们将尝试得出该差异的 95% 置信区间。

We actually need to come up with a 95% confidence interval for P1 minus P2.

实际上，我们需要为 P1 减去 P2 得出一个 95% 的置信区间。

So the low end of our confidence interval, and I'm running out of space, 1.91 minus 1.21, that's just 0.7.

所以我们的置信区间的低端，我的空间用完了， 1. 91 减去 1. 21，只有 0. 7。

Or what is a confidence interval of the difference of means?

或者均值差异的置信区间是多少？

Our confidence interval would be this value plus d and this value minus d.

我们的置信区间是这个值加 d 和这个值减去 d。

But our goal is to get a 95% confidence interval.

但我们的目标是获得 95% 的置信区间。

And we want a 95% confidence interval.

我们想要一个 95% 的置信区间。

And what we're going to do in this video is try to come up with a 95% confidence interval for this parameter.

我们在本视频中要做的是尝试为该参数得出一个 95% 的置信区间。

Summary measures of uncertainty, so that's comparing here confidence intervals, with credible intervals. And the next part of the book, I start off.

对不确定性的测量进行总结 比较置信区间和可信区间 书的下一部分 我开始了。

So in this video, 95% confidence interval.

所以在这个视频中，95% 的置信区间。

So what we want to do when we want a confidence interval, we want to be confident.

所以当我们想要一个置信区间时，我们想要做什么，我们想要有信心。

It's very easy to memorize if you do, but this way, you actually see why this confidence interval makes sense.

如果你这样做，就很容易记住，但这样一来，你就会真正明白为什么这个置信区间有意义。