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单词 Birthday Paradox
释义

Birthday Paradox

中文百科

生日问题 Birthday problem

(重定向自Birthday Paradox)
该图片显示特定人数对应的2个人生日一样的概率
比较p (n) = 任意两个人生日相同概率q (n) =和某人生日相同的概率

生日问题是指,如果一个房间里有23个或23个以上的人,那幺至少有两个人的生日相同的概率要大于50%。这就意味着在一个典型的标准小学班级(30人)中,存在两人生日相同的可能性更高。对于60或者更多的人,这种概率要大于99%。从引起逻辑矛盾的角度来说生日悖论并不是一种悖论,从这个数学事实与一般直觉相抵触的意义上,它才称得上是一个悖论。大多数人会认为,23人中有2人生日相同的概率应该远远小于50%。计算与此相关的概率被称为生日问题,在这个问题之后的数学理论已被用于设计著名的密码攻击方法:生日攻击

英语百科

Birthday problem 生日问题

(重定向自Birthday Paradox)
A graph showing the computed probability of at least two people sharing a birthday amongst a certain number of people.
The probability that no two people share a birthday in a group of n people. Note that the vertical scale is logarithmic (each step down is 1020 times less likely).
Graphs showing the approximate probabilities of at least two people sharing a birthday (red) and its complementary event (blue)

In probability theory, the birthday problem or birthday paradox concerns the probability that, in a set of n randomly chosen people, some pair of them will have the same birthday. By the pigeonhole principle, the probability reaches 100% when the number of people reaches 367 (since there are only 366 possible birthdays, including February 29). However, 99.9% probability is reached with just 70 people, and 50% probability with 23 people. These conclusions are based on the assumption that each day of the year (except February 29) is equally probable for a birthday.

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更新时间:2025/6/18 16:02:34