理性预期（英语：Rational Expectations），或者叫做理性预期假说（英语：Rational Expectation Hypothesis），一个经济学的假说，人们针对某个经济现象（例如市场价格）进行的预期，是理性的。他们会最大限度的充分利用所得到的信息来作出行动而不会犯系统性的错误，所有的错误都会是随机的。一般来说，人的理性预期会等于统计上的期望值。

这是由理性选择理论所导出的应用，经常被应用于总体经济学与赛局理论上。理性预期最早是由约翰·穆斯（Muth，1961）针对适应性预期（Adaptive expectations）中的非最优特性而提出的。经由小罗伯特·卢卡斯的推广，而广为人知。

In economics, "rational expectations" are model-consistent expectations, in that agents inside the model on average assume the model's predictions are valid. Rational expectations ensure internal consistency in aggregate stochastic models. To obtain consistency within a model, the predictions of the future value of economically relevant variables are optimal given the decision-makers' information set and model structure. The rational expectations assumption is used especially in many contemporary macroeconomic models. Rational expectations does not imply individual rationality and should not be confused with rational choice theory, which is used extensively in, among others, game theory.