随机漫步假说（英语：Random walk hypothesis）是金融学上的一个假说，认为股票市场的价格，会形成随机漫步模式，因此它是无法被预测的。它源自于效率市场假说。

这个理论最早出现在1863年，法国的一名股票掮客朱利·荷纽（Jules Regnault）出版的书中。1900年，法国数学家路易·巴舍利耶（Louis Bachelier）在他的博士论文《投机理论》（the Theory of Speculation）中也讨论了类似观念。

1953年，莫里斯·肯德尔（Maurice Kendall）在他的论文《经济的时间串行分析，第一部：价格》（The Analytics of Economic Time Series, Part 1: Prices）中，提出股票市场价格的变动是随机的主张。1964年，史隆管理学院的保罗·库特纳（Paul Cootner）出版了《股票市场的随机性质》（The Random Character of Stock Market Prices）。1965年，尤金·法马发表了《股票市场价格的随机漫步》（Random Walks In Stock Market Prices），正式形成这个假说。1973年，在普林斯顿大学伯顿·墨尔基尔（Burton Malkiel）教授出版《漫步华尔街》一书之后，这个假说开始为人所熟知。

The random walk hypothesis is a financial theory stating that stock market prices evolve according to a random walk and thus cannot be predicted. It is consistent with the efficient-market hypothesis.

The concept can be traced to French broker Jules Regnault who published a book in 1863, and then to French mathematician Louis Bachelier whose Ph.D. dissertation titled "The Theory of Speculation" (1900) included some remarkable insights and commentary. The same ideas were later developed by MIT Sloan School of Management professor Paul Cootner in his 1964 book The Random Character of Stock Market Prices. The term was popularized by the 1973 book, A Random Walk Down Wall Street, by Burton Malkiel, a Professor of Economics at Princeton University, and was used earlier in Eugene Fama's 1965 article "Random Walks In Stock Market Prices", which was a less technical version of his Ph.D. thesis. The theory that stock prices move randomly was earlier proposed by Maurice Kendall in his 1953 paper, The Analysis of Economic Time Series, Part 1: Prices.