赌徒谬误 Gambler's fallacy
赌徒谬误(The Gambler's Fallacy)亦称为蒙地卡罗谬误(The Monte Carlo Fallacy),是一种机率谬误,主张由于某事发生了很多次,因此接下来不太可能发生;或者由于某事很久没发生,因此接下来很可能会发生。
赌徒谬误的思维方式像是如此:抛一枚公平的硬币,连续出现越多次反面朝上,下次抛出正面的机率就越大,抛出反面的机率就越小。
单词 | Monte Carlo fallacy |
释义 |
Monte Carlo fallacy
中文百科
赌徒谬误 Gambler's fallacy(重定向自Monte Carlo fallacy)
赌徒谬误(The Gambler's Fallacy)亦称为蒙地卡罗谬误(The Monte Carlo Fallacy),是一种机率谬误,主张由于某事发生了很多次,因此接下来不太可能发生;或者由于某事很久没发生,因此接下来很可能会发生。 赌徒谬误的思维方式像是如此:抛一枚公平的硬币,连续出现越多次反面朝上,下次抛出正面的机率就越大,抛出反面的机率就越小。
英语百科
Gambler's fallacy 赌徒谬误(重定向自Monte Carlo fallacy)
![]() The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the mistaken belief that, if something happens more frequently than normal during some period, it will happen less frequently in the future, or that, if something happens less frequently than normal during some period, it will happen more frequently in the future (presumably as a means of balancing nature). In situations where what is being observed is truly random (i.e., independent trials of a random process), this belief, though appealing to the human mind, is false. This fallacy can arise in many practical situations although it is most strongly associated with gambling where such mistakes are common among players. |
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